Census said September durable-goods orders rose 1.8%

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose $6.3 billion, or 1.8%, to $345.4 billion in September, the U.S. Census Bureau said on Tuesday. The advance release says that followed a 0.1% increase in August. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.5%. Orders excluding defense rose 2.2%. Transportation equipment, up in two of the last three months, led the increase, rising $5.2 billion, or 4.6%, to $119.8 billion. The full text, release CB 26-169, was posted for 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The September orders figure on the release is $345.4 billion, and the revised August level is $339.1 billion.

Shipments rose $3.0 billion, or 0.9%, to $336.8 billion, the ninth increase in ten months, after a 0.2% decline in August. Transportation equipment shipments led that increase, up $1.6 billion, or 1.4%, to $111.1 billion. Unfilled orders rose $13.6 billion, or 0.8%, to $1,623.6 billion. Inventories rose $1.9 billion, or 0.3%, to $610.0 billion, a twelfth straight monthly increase. Transportation equipment inventories were $193.2 billion.

Nondefense capital-goods orders rose $6.3 billion, or 6.2%, to $107.8 billion. Shipments of those goods rose 1.7% to $97.1 billion, and unfilled orders rose 1.1% to $968.4 billion. Defense capital-goods orders fell $0.4 billion, or 1.8%, to $20.8 billion. The Census Bureau said the figures in the text are adjusted for seasonal variation and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, and that new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor manufacturing.

The release says the estimates are not from a probability sample, so sampling error cannot be measured and the statistical significance of the changes cannot be measured. It says the panel is about 4,700 reporting units representing about 3,000 companies, and that the companies now reported or imputed in the survey represent about 58% of manufacturing shipment value in the 2022 Economic Census. Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods, are scheduled for Nov. 3 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time. The October advance durable-goods report is scheduled for Nov. 25 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The September change is a reported figure. It is not a forecast of the next month, and it is not a judgment on what a manufacturer or a household should buy.