Michigan survey shows October consumer sentiment held near 48

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment was 48.0 in the final October 2026 survey, compared with 48.1 in September and 53.6 in October 2025, the Surveys of Consumers reported. That is a month-to-month change of 0.2% and a year-to-year change of 10.4%, on the survey’s own table.

The Current Economic Conditions index was 46.7, down from 50.9 in September and from 58.6 a year earlier, a monthly drop of 8.3% and a yearly drop of 20.3%, the survey said. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose to 48.8 from 46.3 in September, and stood at 50.3 in October 2025, a monthly gain of 5.4% and a yearly decline of 3.0%.

Michigan News, publishing the survey on Oct. 23, said a move of 4.8 points is the minimum monthly change required for 95% significance on the sentiment index. The bar is 6 points for the current-conditions index and for expectations. The headline index moved by a tenth of a point.

Joanne Hsu, the surveys’ director, wrote that sentiment “held steady this month, registering a scant one-tenth of an index point below September.” On the survey site, she said increases among Republicans and Democrats were balanced by declines among independents. Year-ahead business conditions improved about 14% and stand 16% below last October’s reading, she wrote.

The decline in current conditions “was driven entirely by buying conditions for durables, which plunged 18%” because of higher interest rates and worries about whether those purchases are affordable, Hsu wrote on the survey page. She said sentiment is 10% below a year ago and 15% below February, “just prior to the Iran conflict.”

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.6% in September to 4.7%, the survey said. Hsu wrote that the reading is above the 3.4% recorded in February before the Iran conflict began, and above every 2024 reading. Longer-run expectations stepped up from 3.4% to 3.5%, above the 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%. Both horizons rose for a second straight month, to the highest readings since May, she wrote.

The survey is a rotating panel at the Institute for Social Research, Michigan News said. Each household in the coterminous United States has an equal chance of selection, and interviews are conducted through the month on the web. A separate Michigan News account of the same release covers what respondents said about buying a house.