BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues in 'D is for Dilution' that SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI share unlocks could pressure AI stocks, bank credit and Bitcoin.
Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder who runs family office Maelstrom, published a new essay arguing that large share unlocks at SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI will dilute early public investors, weaken AI equity prices and, through bank balance sheets, pressure Bitcoin in the near term. He flagged the piece on X on 5 November:
""D is for Dilution" is an essay about how $SPCX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs will destroy capital and initiate the next down leg in AI."
The full essay is on his Substack. The numbers and market path below are Hayes’s estimates and trading thesis, not consensus forecasts.
Dilution maths Hayes puts forward
Hayes focuses on freely tradable supply rather than whether the labs’ products succeed. For SpaceX, which he treats as already listed under the ticker SPCX, he estimates roughly another 50% dilution by the end of June 2027 from about 8.6 billion additional shares unlocking, much of it tied to Elon Musk’s vesting schedule, according to the essay as summarised by Yahoo Finance and Benzinga.
For Anthropic, he estimates that IPO investors face about 83% dilution by June 2027 as more shares unlock, with cash flows directed at compute rather than dividends. Secondary coverage says OpenAI’s listing has slipped into 2027. Those dilution percentages are Hayes’s reading of filings and unlock schedules; this desk has not re-run his share-count model.
Why he ties AI stocks to Bitcoin
Hayes’s link to crypto runs through banks, not the Federal Reserve’s policy rate. He says banks fund AI via loans, margin financing and their own books, so sagging AI equity prices would raise borrowing costs for the labs and shrink the credit that he credits for Bitcoin’s recent strength. Crypto Briefing summarised his near-term view as Bitcoin weakness alongside AI stocks, followed by a later “bailout” liquidity response he expects from central banks.
That path is a market opinion. Yahoo Finance noted that Real Vision’s Raoul Pal rejects the debt concern for hyperscalers, and that Hayes himself treats a single weekly dip in bank balance sheets as one data point. Hayes’s essay also discloses Maelstrom advisory ties to AI-related crypto projects, which readers should weigh when judging the trade idea.
Nothing in the X post or the secondary coverage is a regulatory filing confirming Anthropic or OpenAI IPO pricing. Treat the dilution figures and the Bitcoin timing as Hayes’s argument, and watch the actual unlock calendars and bank credit data if you trade the thesis.
