BEA said real GDP rose at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, the July-through-September period, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate released Oct. 29. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.2%. BEA also said real GDP rose 0.8% at a quarterly rate. The same release puts current-dollar GDP growth at 5.6%. The next publication, a second estimate with corporate profits, is scheduled for Nov. 25. BEA notes that the following release supersedes this one. The 3.4% figure is that first official estimate, not a prediction of the revision.

BEA said the third-quarter increase reflected higher investment, consumer spending, and government spending, partly offset by a decrease in exports. Imports increased. In the GDP accounts, imports are subtracted. Compared with the second quarter, the faster pace mainly reflected faster investment and an upturn in government spending, partly offset by a downturn in exports. Imports rose more than they had in the second quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which BEA defines as consumer spending plus gross private fixed investment, increased 4.9%, after 4.6% in the second quarter.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.0% in the third quarter, after 5.6% in the second. In this same quarterly release, the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 2.1%, after 5.0%, and the index excluding food and energy increased 2.5%, after 3.3%. Those are annualized quarterly changes inside the GDP report. They are not the monthly PCE price index BEA published the same morning for September.

Within investment, BEA said the increase was led by private inventories and by equipment. Inventories were led by wholesale trade and manufacturing, both concentrated in nondurable goods, using Census Bureau book-value data. Equipment was led by information processing equipment, mainly computers and peripheral equipment. Consumer spending rose in both services and goods. Services were led by health care, mainly hospitals and outpatient services, and by food services and accommodations. Goods were led by other nondurable goods, mainly prescription drugs.

On government spending, BEA said the increase was more than accounted for by federal spending, led by nondefense consumption. It said that pattern mainly reflected sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Those sales are deducted from government consumption. Third-quarter sales were smaller than second-quarter sales, so measured consumption rose. BEA said the oil sold by the government shows up in other parts of GDP, so the sales themselves have no direct effect on GDP. The decrease in exports was led by goods, particularly petroleum and related products. The largest contributor to imports was capital goods other than automotive.